PiqueInsights  ·  Proprietary Framework
Exhibit 03 / 06  ·  Research Ops · Confidence
Framework Three

Evidence Ladder.

A confidence taxonomy that matches the strength of evidence to the weight of the decision.
Not all research is created equal; not all decisions deserve the same evidence. The Evidence Ladder is PiqueInsights' five-rung taxonomy for classifying what a finding actually supports — and what size of bet it can responsibly carry.
Figure 3 — The five rungs of decision-grade evidenceascending in confidence & commit weight
High
Confidence · Decision weight
Low
01

Anecdote

a single voice, observed once

Individual stories, sales calls, or support tickets. Useful for generating questions; insufficient to commit spend against.

0.18
Fit for
Framing questions, surfacing hypotheses, opening discovery — not for ship decisions.
02

Pattern

recurring across voices

The same theme appears across multiple sessions, segments, or sources. Strong enough to justify a scoped investigation.

0.38
Fit for
Scoping a problem, prioritizing a backlog, committing time — not capital.
03

Triangulated

confirmed across methods

Same pattern reads true in behavioral data, attitudinal data, and market signal. The finding begins to deserve a product bet.

0.58
Fit for
Go / hold / kill on feature-level bets; prioritized roadmap sequencing.
04

Tested

held under a falsifiable bet

Finding has survived a pre-registered test with stated guardrails. The result would have changed the team's mind if it had failed.

0.78
Fit for
Line-of-business investments; re-platforming decisions; GTM pivots.
05

Committed

ships, measures, closes the loop

Evidence has moved from study to production outcome, with post-ship telemetry feeding the next decision's prior.

0.94
Fit for
Company-level commitments; board-visible investments; strategic pivots.
Figure 3b — Minimum acceptable rung, by decision weight● required    ◉ sufficient    ○ below threshold
Decision class
01
02
03
04
05
Framing / scoping a problem
Feature-level product bet
Line-of-business investment
Company-level commitment
Product Outcome  ·  01
40%
fewer product bets committed on rung-1 anecdotes that would have failed at rung-3.
Product Outcome  ·  02
Clarity
every decision memo states the rung its evidence sits at — no hidden confidence.
Product Outcome  ·  03
Auditable
leaders can trace every investment back to its evidence strength on a single axis.